Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 44.25%. A draw had a probability of 28.7% and a win for Bologna had a probability of 27.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.98%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.09%), while for a Bologna win it was 0-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.