Scottish Premiership Gameweek 7
Sep 19, 2026 5.45pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Rugby Park
  • Cathal McCarthy 10' yellowcard
  • Jamie McCart 16' goal
  • Michael Schjönning-Larsen 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Stephen Kingsley 63'
  • goal Stephen Kingsley 86'
  • yellowcard Christian Borchgrevink 89'
  • yellowcard Christian Borchgrevink 90'

Kilmarnock vs Hearts - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Kilmarnock

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last game
Sep 15, 2026 7.45pm
Hibernian 0 - 1 Kilmarnock
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Greg Kiltie

Hearts

All competitions
Scottish Premiership
Last game
Sep 15, 2026 7.45pm
Falkirk 2 - 1 Hearts
Goals scored
14
Top scorer
James Wilson

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 47.36%. A win for Kilmarnock had a probability of 27.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.88%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Kilmarnock win was 2-1 (6.89%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.

Result

Kilmarnock 27.44% ▼ (-0.03)
Draw 25.23%
Hearts 47.36% ▲ (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

58.65% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.26% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 20.74% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 56.77% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 2.5 43.23% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 34.62% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 3.5 65.38% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 4.5 20.09% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 4.5 79.91% ▲ (+0.01)

First Half Winner

Kilmarnock 25.66%
Draw 39.74%
Hearts 34.6%

Team To Score First

Kilmarnock 39.82%
No Goal 5.56% ▲ (+0.01)
Hearts 54.62% ▼ (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 69.92%
Equal 8 9.72%
Under 8 20.35%
Over 9 58.98%
Equal 9 10.94%
Under 9 30.08%
Over 10.5 47.71%
Under 10.5 52.29%

Kilmarnock Goals

Over 1.5 32.79% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 1.5 67.21% ▲ (+0.06)
Over 2.5 12.29% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 87.71% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 3.75% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 96.25% ▲ (+0.02)

Hearts Goals

Over 0.5 79.12% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 0.5 20.88% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 1.5 49.21% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 50.79% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 23.76% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 76.24% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 9.36% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 90.64% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Kilmarnock 27.43%
Draw 25.24%
Hearts 47.37%
Kilmarnock
2-1 @ 6.89% ▼ (-0.02)
1-0 @ 6.34% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 3.89% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 2.83% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.35%
3-0 @ 1.72%
Other @ 3.41% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 27.43%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.31%
2-2 @ 6.39% ▼ (-0.02)
0-0 @ 5.56% ▲ (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.64%
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 25.24%
Hearts
1-2 @ 9.42%
0-1 @ 8.88% ▲ (+0.03)
0-2 @ 7.29% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 5.32% ▲ (+0.02)
0-3 @ 4.11% ▲ (+0.02)
2-3 @ 3.33%
Other @ 9.02% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 47.37%

Head to Head

Scottish Premiership Gameweek 30
Mar 14, 2026 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Rugby Park
  • Michael Schjönning-Larsen 17' goal
  • Tom Lowery 65' yellowcard
  • Dominic Thompson 70' yellowcard
  • Rory McKenzie 70' yellowcard
  • Marley Watkins 83' yellowcard
  • Jack Thomson 83' yellowcard
  • Lewis Mayo 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Oisin McEntee 35'
  • yellowcard Islam Chesnokov 46'
  • yellowcard Jordi Altena 56'
  • yellowcard Sabah Kerjota 81'
  • yellowcard Frankie Kent 87'
  • yellowcard Elton Kabangu 87'
  • yellowcard Elton Kabangu 88'
  • yellowcard Frankie Kent 88'
  • yellowcard Frankie Kent 89'
Scottish Premiership
Dec 3, 2025 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Lawrence Shankland 49' goal
  • Tómas Bent Magnússon 74' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Robbie Deas 2'
  • yellowcard Robbie Deas 3'
  • goal Bruce Anderson 90'
  • yellowcard James Brown 90'+6'
Scottish Premiership
Dec 3, 2025 7.45pm
Scottish Premiership
Oct 18, 2025 5.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Premiership
Oct 18, 2025 3.00pm
Scottish Premiership Gameweek 38
May 18, 2025 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Rugby Park
  • Liam Donnelly 40' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Adam Forrester 19'
  • redcard Yan Dhanda 38'
  • goal Stephen Kingsley 89'