Aug 14, 2026 7.45pm

Rugby Park

Kilmarnock vs Ayr United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Kilmarnock

All competitions

L
L
D
W
W
D

Ayr United

All competitions

D
W
D
W
W
W

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 48.05%. A win for Ayr United has a probability of 26.93% and a draw has a probability of 24.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Ayr United win is 0-1 (6.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.53%).

Result

Kilmarnock 48.05% ▲ (+0.13)

Draw 24.97% ▼ (-0.15)

Ayr United 26.93% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score:

56.33% ▲ (+0.25)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.62% ▲ (+0.07)

Under 1.5 23.38% ▼ (-0.07)

Over 2.5 53% ▲ (+0.18)

Under 2.5 47% ▼ (-0.18)

Over 3.5 31.04% ▲ (+0.20)

Under 3.5 68.96% ▼ (-0.21)

Over 4.5 17.74% ▲ (+0.17)

Under 4.5 82.26% ▼ (-0.18)

First Half Winner

Kilmarnock 35.5% ▼ (-0.05)

Draw 41.97% ▲ (+0.08)

Ayr United 22.53% ▼ (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Kilmarnock 55.37% ▲ (+0.22)

No Goal 6.52% ▼ (-0.07)

Ayr United 38.11% ▼ (-0.15)

Corners

Over 8 59.85% ▼ (-0.09)

Equal 8 11.02% ▼ (-0.04)

Under 8 29.13% ▲ (+0.11)

Over 9 48.46% ▼ (-0.05)

Equal 9 11.4% ▼ (-0.03)

Under 9 40.15% ▲ (+0.09)

Over 10.5 37.62% ▼ (-0.02)

Under 10.5 62.38% ▲ (+0.02)

Kilmarnock Goals

Over 1.5 46.83% ▲ (+0.15)

Under 1.5 53.17% ▼ (-0.15)

Over 2.5 22.08% ▲ (+0.15)

Under 2.5 77.92% ▼ (-0.15)

Over 3.5 8.02% ▲ (+0.07)

Under 3.5 91.98% ▼ (-0.07)

Ayr United Goals

Over 0.5 63.41% ▼ (-0.09)

Under 0.5 36.59% ▲ (+0.09)

Over 1.5 30.48% ▲ (+0.06)

Under 1.5 69.52% ▼ (-0.05)

Over 2.5 10.34% ▲ (+0.03)

Under 2.5 89.66% ▼ (-0.04)

Over 3.5 3.3% ▲ (+0.03)

Under 3.5 96.7% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Kilmarnock 48.05%

Draw 24.97%

Ayr United 26.93%

Kilmarnock

1-0 @ 10.02% ▼ (-0.01)

2-1 @ 9.45% ▼ (-0.04)

2-0 @ 7.7%

3-1 @ 5.16% ▲ (+0.03)

3-0 @ 4.32% ▲ (+0.02)

3-2 @ 3.42% ▲ (+0.05)

Other @ 7.98% ▲ (+0.09)

Total : 48.05%

Draw

1-1 @ 11.53% ▼ (-0.08)

0-0 @ 6.52% ▼ (-0.07)

2-2 @ 5.72%

3-3 @ 1.16%

Other @ 0.04% ▼ (-0.02)

Total : 24.97%

Ayr United

0-1 @ 6.79% ▼ (-0.05)

1-2 @ 6.61% ▲ (+0.02)

0-2 @ 4.39% ▼ (-0.05)

1-3 @ 2.42% ▲ (+0.01)

2-3 @ 1.88% ▲ (+0.02)

0-3 @ 1.58% ▼ (-0.03)

Other @ 3.26% ▲ (+0.03)

Total : 26.93%

Head to Head

Jul 4, 2025 7.30pm

1

0

HT : 0 0

FT

Jul 11, 2024 7.45pm

3

2

HT : 2 1

FT Somerset Park

George Stanger 26'
Marco Rus 34'
Anton Dowds 65'

Bradley Lyons 43'
Robbie Deas 77'

Mar 11, 2022 7.45pm

1

3

HT : 1 3

FT

Markus Fjortoft 30'
Kerr McInroy 38'

Rory McKenzie 3'
Oli Shaw 12'
Jack Sanders 16'
Lee Hodson 48'
Ash Taylor 73'

Feb 9, 2022 7.45pm

1

2

HT : 1 1

FT

Fraser Murray 7'

James Maxwell 14'
Andy Murdoch 23'
Paddy Reading 80'
Kerr McInroy 90'+1'

Oct 26, 2021 7.45pm

0

1

HT : 0 0

FT

Paddy Reading 25'
Tomi Adeloye 68'

Dylan McGowan 45'+2'
Euan Murray 80'
Oli Shaw 89'
Oli Shaw 90'

Aug 2, 2021 7.45pm

2

0

HT : 0 0

FT BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Chris Stokes 45'+1'
Liam Polworth 56'
Innes Cameron 86'
Bradley Lyons 88'

Tomi Adeloye 31'
Jordan Houston 41'
Cameron Salkeld 71'
Jack Baird 85'

Form Data

Kilmarnock 1 - 5 Celtic

St Johnstone 4 - 3 Kilmarnock

Peterhead 0 - 0 Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock 1 - 0 Hamilton

Elgin 0 - 1 Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock 0 - 0 Raith Rovers

Dunfermline 1 - 1 Ayr

Ayr 2 - 0 Arbroath

Ayr 0 - 0 Darvel

Ayr 4 - 1 Alloa

Ayr 2 - 0 Edinburgh

Falkirk 0 - 1 Ayr