Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 53.71%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 22.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.78%) and 0-2 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-0 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.