Primeira Liga | Gameweek 34

May 17, 2025 at 6pm UK

Estadio Do Dragao

Porto
3 - 0
Nacional

Moura (1'), Omorodion (69' pen.), Mora Carvalho (83')
Vieira (43')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Dias (13'), Vitor (26'), Paulinho (45+3'), Rodrigues dos Santos (80'), Adriano Baptista Goncalves (88'), Garcia (90+1')
Vitor (66')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Porto and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions

Last Game: Boavista 1-2 Porto
Sunday, May 11 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Nacional 3-3 Rio Ave
Saturday, May 10 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.39%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 8.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.38%) and 3-0 (10.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.44%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (3.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Nacional
75.39% ( -0.66)	15.65% ( 0.3)	8.96% ( 0.36)

Both teams to score 46.68% (

0.49)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.11% (

-0.21)

38.89% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.8% (

-0.22)

61.2% (

0.22)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.29% (

-0.2)

8.71% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.04% (

-0.49)

29.96% (

0.49)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.13% (

0.65)

48.87% (

-0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.14% (

0.46)

83.86% (

-0.47)

Score Analysis

Porto 75.38%

Nacional 8.96%

Draw 15.65%

Porto	Draw	Nacional
2-0 @ 12.67% ( -0.12) 1-0 @ 10.38% 3-0 @ 10.31% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 9.08% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 7.39% ( 0) 4-0 @ 6.3% ( -0.18) 4-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.12) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.05) 5-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.61% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.96% Total : 75.38%	1-1 @ 7.44% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.71% Total : 15.65%	0-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.16% Total : 8.96%