Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 77.5%. A draw had a probability of 14.5% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 7.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.78%) and 0-1 (9.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.91%), while for a Boavista win it was 1-0 (2.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.