Primeira Liga | Gameweek 33

May 10, 2025 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio da Madeira

Nacional
3 - 3
Rio Ave

Sousa (46'), Rodrigues dos Santos (90'), Kostoulas (90+4' og.)
Franca (72')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Tiknaz (3', 43'), Bakoulas (28')
Tiknaz (18'), Kostoulas (57'), Clayton (86'), Pohlmann (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Rio Ave, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Nacional 1-2 Guimaraes
Saturday, May 3 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Rio Ave

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Rio Ave 2-0 Estrela Amadora
Monday, May 5 at 7.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 35.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Rio Ave
38.62% ( -0.43)	25.84% ( 0.07)	35.53% ( 0.36)

Both teams to score 54.69% (

-0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.45% (

-0.27)

49.55% (

0.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.42% (

-0.24)

71.57% (

0.24)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.83% (

-0.35)

25.16% (

0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.11% (

-0.48)

59.88% (

0.48)

Rio Ave Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.09% (

0.08)

26.91% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.76% (

0.11)

62.23% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Nacional 38.62%

Rio Ave 35.53%

Draw 25.84%

Nacional	Draw	Rio Ave
1-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.46% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 3.89% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 2.96% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.6% Total : 38.62%	1-1 @ 12.26% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.77% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.84%	0-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 8.05% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.55% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.1% Total : 35.53%