Primeira Liga Gameweek 33
Nacional
May 10, 2025 3.30pm
3
3
HT : 0 3
FT Estadio da Madeira
Rio Ave
  • Andre Sousa 46' goal
  • Lucas Franca 72' yellowcard
  • Leonardo Rodrigues dos Santos 90' goal
  • Konstantinos Kostoulas 90'+4' goal
  • goal Ege Tiknaz 3'
  • yellowcard Ege Tiknaz 18'
  • goal Theofanis Bakoulas 28'
  • goal Ege Tiknaz 43'
  • yellowcard Konstantinos Kostoulas 57'
  • yellowcard Clayton 86'
  • yellowcard Ole Pohlmann 90'+2'

Nacional vs Rio Ave - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last game
May 3, 2025 3.30pm
Nacional 1 - 2 Guimaraes
Goals scored
32
Top scorer
Daniel Penha

Rio Ave

All competitions
Last game
May 5, 2025 7.30pm
Rio Ave 2 - 0 Estrela Amadora
Goals scored
39
Top scorer
Clayton

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 35.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result

Nacional 38.62% ▼ (-0.43)
Draw 25.84% ▲ (+0.08)
Rio Ave 35.53% ▲ (+0.36)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.69% ▼ (-0.20)

Goals

Over 2.5 50.45% ▼ (-0.27)
Under 2.5 49.55% ▲ (+0.27)
Over 3.5 28.42% ▼ (-0.24)
Under 3.5 71.57% ▲ (+0.24)
Over 4.5 13.59% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 4.5 86.4% ▲ (+0.17)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5 74.83% ▼ (-0.36)
Under 0.5 25.16% ▲ (+0.36)
Over 1.5 40.11% ▼ (-0.49)
Under 1.5 59.88% ▲ (+0.49)

Rio Ave Goals

Over 0.5 73.09% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 0.5 26.91% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 1.5 37.76% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 1.5 62.23% ▼ (-0.12)

Score analysis

Nacional 38.62%
Draw 25.84%
Rio Ave 35.53%
Nacional
1-0 @ 9.34% ▲ (+0.01)
2-1 @ 8.46% ▼ (-0.06)
2-0 @ 6.45% ▼ (-0.06)
3-1 @ 3.89% ▼ (-0.07)
3-0 @ 2.96% ▼ (-0.06)
3-2 @ 2.55% ▼ (-0.04)
4-1 @ 1.34% ▼ (-0.04)
4-0 @ 1.02% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 38.62%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.26% ▲ (+0.04)
0-0 @ 6.77% ▲ (+0.08)
2-2 @ 5.55% ▼ (-0.03)
3-3 @ 1.12% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.84%
Rio Ave
0-1 @ 8.89% ▲ (+0.12)
1-2 @ 8.05% ▲ (+0.05)
0-2 @ 5.84% ▲ (+0.10)
1-3 @ 3.52% ▲ (+0.03)
0-3 @ 2.55% ▲ (+0.05)
2-3 @ 2.43% ▼ (-0.01)
1-4 @ 1.16% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 35.53%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga Gameweek 16
Rio Ave
Dec 29, 2024 3.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
Nacional
  • Clayton 26' goal
  • Clayton 73' goal
  • goal Bruno Costa 34'
  • yellowcard Djibril Soumare 80'
Club Friendlies 3
Rio Ave
Jul 31, 2024 10.30am
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
Nacional
Primeira Liga Gameweek 34
Nacional
May 19, 2021 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT
Rio Ave
  • Luiz Eduardo Teodora da Silva 11' goal
  • Larry Azouni 16' yellowcard
  • goal Aderlan 51'
  • yellowcard Filipe Augusto 84'
  • goal Carlos Mane 90'+4'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 17
Rio Ave
Feb 5, 2021 5.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Nacional
  • Tarantini 35' yellowcard
  • Fabio Coentrao 55' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Larry Azouni 50'
  • yellowcard Riccardo Piscitelli 90'+3'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 26
Nacional
Mar 17, 2019 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estádio da Madeira (Funchal (Ilha da Madeira))
Rio Ave
  • Mauro Cerqueira 48' yellowcard
  • Vitor Goncalves 70' yellowcard
  • goal Ronan Jeronimo 36'
  • yellowcard Carlos 64'
  • yellowcard Nadjack 90'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 9
Rio Ave
Nov 5, 2018 7.00pm
3
3
HT : 2 1
FT Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube (Vila do Conde)
Nacional
  • Diego Lopes 7' goal
  • Carlos 45' goal
  • Matheus Reis 60' yellowcard
  • Carlos 67' goal
  • Fabio Coentrao 91' yellowcard
  • goal Kenji Gorre 24'
  • yellowcard Julio 35'
  • yellowcard Felipe Lopes 45'
  • yellowcard Joao Camacho 55'
  • goal Bryan Rochez 79'
  • goal Witi 89'
  • yellowcard Sergio Marakis 91'
  • yellowcard Daniel 94'

Form Data

Nacional 1 - 2 Guimaraes
Moreirense 1 - 1 Nacional
Nacional 0 - 3 Gil Vicente
Boavista 0 - 1 Nacional
Nacional 0 - 1 Estrela Amadora
Santa Clara 1 - 0 Nacional
Rio Ave 2 - 0 Estrela Amadora
Guimaraes 3 - 0 Rio Ave
Rio Ave 1 - 2 Sporting Lisbon
Rio Ave 1 - 1 Santa Clara
Moreirense 0 - 2 Rio Ave
Rio Ave 0 - 2 Boavista