Primeira Liga | Gameweek 30

Apr 19, 2025 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio da Madeira

Nacional
0 - 3
Gil Vicente

FT(HT: 0-1)

Correia (16', 82' pen.), Pablo (62')
Mutombo Mawesi (25'), Aboubakar Bamba (75'), Pablo (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Gil Vicente, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Boavista 0-1 Nacional
Saturday, April 12 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Gil Vicente

All competitions

Last Game: Gil Vicente 0-1 Guimaraes
Friday, April 11 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.28%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 31.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Gil Vicente
31.64% ( 0.64)	27.08% ( 0.23)	41.28% ( -0.88)

Both teams to score 49.83% (

-0.47)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.64% (

-0.71)

55.36% (

0.71)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.43% (

-0.59)

76.57% (

0.59)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.71% (

0.09)

32.29% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.21% (

0.1)

68.79% (

-0.1)

Gil Vicente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.59% (

-0.79)

26.41% (

0.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.43% (

-1.07)

61.57% (

1.06)

Score Analysis

Nacional 31.64%

Gil Vicente 41.28%

Draw 27.08%

Nacional	Draw	Gil Vicente
1-0 @ 9.64% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 7.25% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 5.45% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.7% Total : 31.64%	1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.08%	0-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 8.55% ( -0.13) 0-2 @ 7.56% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 3.79% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.14) 2-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.15% Total : 41.28%