Primeira Liga | Gameweek 32

May 3, 2025 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio da Madeira

Nacional
1 - 2
Guimaraes

Yamada (73')
Soumare (45'), Vitor (59')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Silva (13'), Andres Ramirez (64')
Andres Ramirez (34'), Silva (45'), Arcanjo (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Nacional and Vitoria de Guimaraes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Last Game: Moreirense 1-1 Nacional
Sunday, April 27 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Last Game: Guimaraes 3-0 Rio Ave
Sunday, April 27 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 55.2%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 21.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.85%) and 1-2 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.16%), while for a Nacional win it was 1-0 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
21.3% ( 0.84)	23.5% ( 0.05)	55.2% ( -0.89)

Both teams to score 52.11% (

1.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.82% (

0.8)

48.18% (

-0.81)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.66% (

0.73)

70.33% (

-0.74)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.02% (

1.31)

36.98% (

-1.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.23% (

1.28)

73.77% (

-1.28)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.69% (

-0.03)

17.31% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.33% (

-0.05)

47.67% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Nacional 21.3%

Vitoria de Guimaraes 55.19%

Draw 23.49%

Nacional	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
1-0 @ 6.37% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.7% Total : 21.3%	1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 4.87% ( 0.17) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.49%	0-1 @ 11.22% ( -0.39) 0-2 @ 9.85% ( -0.34) 1-2 @ 9.79% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 5.76% ( -0.21) 1-3 @ 5.73% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.85% ( 0.1) 0-4 @ 2.52% ( -0.1) 1-4 @ 2.51% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.72% Total : 55.19%