Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gil Vicente in this match.