Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 53.79%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 20.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.98%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.98%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (7.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.