Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 39.84%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.28% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (10.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Casa Pia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Casa Pia.