Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alverca win with a probability of 44.08%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alverca win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-2 (7.63%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.