Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lechia Gdansk win with a probability of 42.31%. A win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 33.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lechia Gdansk win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.44%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lechia Gdansk would win this match.