Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 48.27%. A win for Cercle Brugge had a probability of 27.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Cercle Brugge win was 0-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.