Polish Ekstraklasa | Gameweek 25

Mar 16, 2025 at 7.15pm UK

Stadion Miejski

Jagiellonia
2 - 1
Lech Poznan

Imaz (31'), Murawski (59' og.)
Romanczuk (44'), Polak (65'), Polak (65'), Abramowicz (89')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Gholizadeh (9')
Salamon (52'), Douglas (90+4'), Murawski (90+1')

Coverage of the Polish Ekstraklasa clash between Jagiellonia Bialystok and Lech Poznan.

Form, Standings, Stats

Jagiellonia Bialystok

All competitions

Polish Ekstraklasa

Last Game: Cercle Brugge 2-0 Jagiellonia
Thursday, March 13 at 5.45pm in Conference League

Goals
for

Lech Poznan

All competitions

Last Game: Lech Poznan 3-1 Stal Mielec
Saturday, March 8 at 7.15pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 45.92%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 0-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jagiellonia Bialystok would win this match.

Result
Jagiellonia Bialystok	Draw	Lech Poznan
45.92% ( -0.53)	25.88% ( 0.31)	28.19% ( 0.23)

Both teams to score 51.72% (

-0.8)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.9% (

-1.11)

52.1% (

1.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.17% (

-0.97)

73.82% (

0.97)

Jagiellonia Bialystok Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.34% (

-0.71)

22.65% (

0.71)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.71% (

-1.07)

56.29% (

1.07)

Lech Poznan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.87% (

-0.41)

33.13% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.27% (

-0.46)

69.73% (

0.46)

Score Analysis

Jagiellonia Bialystok 45.92%

Lech Poznan 28.19%

Draw 25.88%

Jagiellonia Bialystok	Draw	Lech Poznan
1-0 @ 11.14% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 9.14% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.14) 3-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 1.68% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 1.52% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.12% Total : 45.92%	1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 7.5% ( 0.33) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.88%	0-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.27) 1-2 @ 6.8% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.58% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.47% Total : 28.19%