Polish Ekstraklasa | Gameweek 24
Mar 8, 2025 at 7.15pm UK
Stadion MOS Poznan

Lech Poznan
3 - 1
Stal Mielec

Carstensen (21'), Hakans (22'), Sousa (58')
Walemark (54'), Carstensen (68')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Dadok (41')
Senger (50'), Jaunzems (90+2')
Coverage of the Polish Ekstraklasa clash between Lech Poznan and Stal Mielec.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lech Poznan

All competitions
Last Game: Szczecin 0-3 Lech Poznan
Saturday, March 1 at 4.30pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Stal Mielec

All competitions
Last Game: Stal Mielec 0-1 Korona Kielce
Saturday, March 1 at 1.45pm in Polish Ekstraklasa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 61.2%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Stal Mielec had a probability of 17.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Stal Mielec win it was 0-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.

Result
Lech PoznanDrawStal Mielec
61.2% (0.117 0.12)21.42% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)17.37% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)
Both teams to score 52.07% (0.071999999999996 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.1% (0.155 0.16)44.9% (-0.156 -0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.74% (0.149 0.15)67.25% (-0.149 -0.15)
Lech Poznan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.83% (0.087000000000003 0.09)14.17% (-0.086 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.14% (0.169 0.17)41.86% (-0.169 -0.17)
Stal Mielec Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.66% (0.023999999999994 0.02)39.34% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.96% (0.021999999999998 0.02)76.04% (-0.021999999999991 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Lech Poznan 61.2%
    Stal Mielec 17.37%
    Draw 21.42%
Lech PoznanDrawStal Mielec
1-0 @ 10.89% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-0 @ 10.64%
2-1 @ 9.93% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 6.93% (0.018 0.02)
3-1 @ 6.47% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
4-0 @ 3.39% (0.02 0.02)
4-1 @ 3.16% (0.02 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.02% (0.012 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.47% (0.011 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.32% (0.012 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.24% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 61.2%
1-1 @ 10.16% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 5.57% (-0.038 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.63% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-3 @ 0.94% (0.0039999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 21.42%
0-1 @ 5.2% (-0.032 -0.03)
1-2 @ 4.74% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-2 @ 2.43% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.47% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.44% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 17.37%

Head to Head
Aug 30, 2024 7.30pm
Gameweek 7
Stal Mielec
0-2
Lech Poznan

Bukowski (39'), Matras (86')
Esselink (90')
Hotic (32'), Ishak (37')
Kozubal (83')
Apr 1, 2024 2pm
Gameweek 26
Stal Mielec
0-0
Lech Poznan
Esselink (87'), Gheorghe (90+3')
Sep 23, 2023 7pm
Gameweek 9
Lech Poznan
2-1
Stal Mielec
Velde (37'), Marchwinski (40')
Velde (44')
Domanski (23')