Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 41.4%. A win for Katowice had a probability of 33.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.97%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Katowice win was 0-1 (7.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.