Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lechia Gdansk win with a probability of 40.54%. A win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 34.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lechia Gdansk win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-2 (8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.