Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 27.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 0-1 (8.32%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%).