Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 41.26%. A win for Motor Lublin had a probability of 34.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.24%). The likeliest Motor Lublin win was 2-1 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.