Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Motor Lublin win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Lechia Gdansk had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Motor Lublin win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.62%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Lechia Gdansk win was 1-2 (7.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.