Tokyo 2020

Olympic Games Men's Football | Group Stage

Jul 25, 2021 at 12pm UK

Saitama Stadium 2002

Japan U23s
2 - 1
Mexico U23s

Kubo (6'), Doan (11' pen.)
Sakai (47'), Tanaka (48')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Alvarado (85')
Montes (11'), Rodriguez (25'), Sanchez (29')
Vasquez (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Olympic Games Men's Football clash between Japan Under-23s and Mexico Under-23s, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan Under-23s win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Mexico Under-23s had a probability of 36.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Japan Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.96%) and 2-0 (5.19%). The likeliest Mexico Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Japan Under-23s in this match.

Result
Japan Under-23s	Draw	Mexico Under-23s
40.92%	22.7%	36.38%

Both teams to score 66.36%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.53%

34.47%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.61%

56.39%

Japan Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.48%

17.52%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.96%

48.04%

Mexico Under-23s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.46%

19.54%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.56%

51.44%

Score Analysis

Japan Under-23s 40.92%

Mexico Under-23s 36.38%

Draw 22.7%

Japan Under-23s	Draw	Mexico Under-23s
2-1 @ 8.48% 1-0 @ 5.96% 2-0 @ 5.19% 3-1 @ 4.92% 3-2 @ 4.02% 3-0 @ 3.02% 4-1 @ 2.14% 4-2 @ 1.75% 4-0 @ 1.31% 4-3 @ 0.95% Other @ 3.17% Total : 40.92%	1-1 @ 9.74% 2-2 @ 6.92% 0-0 @ 3.42% 3-3 @ 2.19% Other @ 0.44% Total : 22.7%	1-2 @ 7.95% 0-1 @ 5.59% 0-2 @ 4.56% 1-3 @ 4.33% 2-3 @ 3.77% 0-3 @ 2.48% 1-4 @ 1.77% 2-4 @ 1.54% 0-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 3.38% Total : 36.38%