Nations League Gameweek 5
Norway
Nov 14, 2026 5.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT Ullevaal Stadion
Wales
  • Antonio Nusa 59' goal
  • Andreas Schjelderup 68' goal
  • Erling Haaland 88' goal
  • yellowcard Ethan Ampadu 16'
  • goal David Brooks 79'
  • yellowcard Connor Roberts 85'
  • yellowcard Harry Wilson 87'

Norway vs Wales - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Norway

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Norway 3 - 2 Denmark

Wales

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Portugal 1 - 0 Wales

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norway win with a probability of 60.84%. A draw had a probability of 20.98% and a win for Wales had a probability of 18.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norway win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.09%) , while for a Wales win it was 1-2 (4.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.

Result

Norway 60.84% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 20.98%
Wales 18.19% ▼ (-0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.86% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.85% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 1.5 20.15% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 58.4% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 41.6% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 3.5 36.98% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 3.5 63.02% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 4.5 24.93% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 4.5 75.07% ▲ (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Norway 45.92%
Draw 35.2%
Wales 18.88%

Team To Score First

Norway 62.03% ▼ (-0.01)
No Goal 5.7% ▲ (+0.01)
Wales 32.27%

Corners

Over 8 62.6%
Equal 8 10.13%
Under 8 27.28%
Over 9 51.88%
Equal 9 10.71%
Under 9 37.4%
Over 10.5 41.41%
Under 10.5 58.59%

Norway Goals

Over 1.5 58.83% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 41.17% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 33.52%
Under 2.5 66.48%
Over 3.5 16.56% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 3.5 83.44% ▲ (+0.01)

Wales Goals

Over 0.5 51.23% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 0.5 48.77% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 1.5 23.05% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 76.95% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 2.5 8.33% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 91.67% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 2.71%
Under 3.5 97.29%

Score analysis

Norway 60.84%
Draw 20.98%
Wales 18.19%
Norway
2-0 @ 10.13%
1-0 @ 9.96% ▲ (+0.05)
2-1 @ 8.8% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 6.85% ▲ (+0.03)
3-1 @ 5.79% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.17% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 16.14% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 60.84%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.09%
0-0 @ 5.7% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.62%
3-3 @ 1.15%
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 20.98%
Wales
1-2 @ 4.7% ▼ (-0.01)
0-1 @ 4.5%
0-2 @ 2.23%
2-3 @ 1.76%
1-3 @ 1.64% ▼ (-0.02)
0-3 @ 1.07% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 18.19%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 3
Wales
Oct 1, 2026 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Cardiff City Stadium
Norway
  • Jordan James 37' yellowcard
  • Daniel James 38' goal
  • Neco Williams 48' goal
  • Ethan Ampadu  90'+3' yellowcard
  • Sorba Thomas 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Oscar Bobb 11'
  • redcard Torbjørn Heggem 46'
  • yellowcard Martin Ødegaard  90'+3'

Form Data

Portugal 2 - 1 Norway
Wales 2 - 1 Norway
Norway 1 - 2 Portugal
Norway 3 - 2 Denmark
Norway 1 - 2 England
Brazil 1 - 2 Norway
Wales 0 - 1 Denmark
Wales 2 - 1 Norway
Denmark 2 - 0 Wales
Portugal 1 - 0 Wales
Romania 2 - 1 Wales
Wales 1 - 1 Ghana

Build-up

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