Nations League Gameweek 4
Oct 4, 2026 7.45pm
Cardiff City Stadium

Wales vs Denmark - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Wales

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Portugal 1 - 0 Wales

Denmark

All competitions
Nations League
Last game
Sep 24, 2026 7.45pm
Norway 3 - 2 Denmark

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Wales win with a probability of 46.76%. A win for Denmark has a probability of 28.66% and a draw has a probability of 24.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wales win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.18%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Denmark win is 1-2 (7.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.9%).

Result

Wales 46.76% ▼ (-1.65)
Draw 24.58% ▲ (+0.41)
Denmark 28.66% ▲ (+1.20)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.31% ▲ (+0.46)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.32% ▲ (+0.74)
Under 1.5 21.68% ▼ (-0.75)
Over 2.5 56.84% ▲ (+0.88)
Under 2.5 43.16% ▼ (-0.88)
Over 3.5 34.28% ▲ (+0.33)
Under 3.5 65.72% ▼ (-0.33)
Over 4.5 20.86% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 4.5 79.14% ▲ (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Wales 35.16% ▼ (-0.57)
Draw 39.32% ▲ (+1.07)
Denmark 25.51% ▼ (-0.51)

Team To Score First

Wales 53.03% ▼ (-1.65)
No Goal 6.1% ▼ (-0.17)
Denmark 40.87% ▲ (+1.81)

Corners

Over 8 49.78% ▼ (-3.12)
Equal 8 11.49% ▲ (+0.56)
Under 8 38.73% ▲ (+2.57)
Over 9 38.76% ▼ (-3.39)
Equal 9 11.01% ▲ (+0.25)
Under 9 50.22% ▲ (+3.12)
Over 10.5 29.02% ▼ (-3.34)
Under 10.5 70.98% ▲ (+3.35)

Wales Goals

Over 1.5 47.48% ▼ (-0.72)
Under 1.5 52.52% ▲ (+0.72)
Over 2.5 23.63% ▼ (-0.77)
Under 2.5 76.37% ▲ (+0.78)
Over 3.5 9.57% ▼ (-0.36)
Under 3.5 90.43% ▲ (+0.37)

Denmark Goals

Over 0.5 64.53% ▲ (+1.11)
Under 0.5 35.47% ▼ (-1.11)
Over 1.5 33.05% ▲ (+1.69)
Under 1.5 66.95% ▼ (-1.69)
Over 2.5 13.06% ▲ (+1.07)
Under 2.5 86.94% ▼ (-1.07)
Over 3.5 4.55% ▲ (+0.48)
Under 3.5 95.45% ▼ (-0.49)

Score analysis

Wales 46.74%
Draw 24.58%
Denmark 28.65%
Wales
2-1 @ 9.22% ▼ (-0.13)
1-0 @ 9.18% ▼ (-0.25)
2-0 @ 6.72% ▼ (-0.27)
3-1 @ 4.99% ▼ (-0.18)
3-0 @ 4.27%
3-2 @ 3.19% ▼ (-0.38)
Other @ 9.17% ▼ (-0.47)
Total : 46.74%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.9% ▲ (+0.09)
0-0 @ 6.1% ▼ (-0.17)
2-2 @ 5.57% ▲ (+0.28)
3-3 @ 1.61% ▲ (+0.15)
Other @ 0.4% ▲ (+0.11)
Total : 24.58%
Denmark
1-2 @ 7.34% ▲ (+0.67)
0-1 @ 6.37% ▼ (-0.37)
0-2 @ 3.89% ▲ (+0.08)
1-3 @ 2.84% ▲ (+0.26)
2-3 @ 2.34% ▲ (+0.18)
0-3 @ 1.72%
Other @ 4.15% ▲ (+0.39)
Total : 28.65%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 2
Sep 27, 2026 5.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Parken
  • Joakim Maehle 35' yellowcard
  • Ben Davies 53' goal
  • Gustav Isaksen 66' goal
  • yellowcard Chris Mepham 48'
  • yellowcard Brennan Johnson 65'
European Championship
Jun 26, 2021 5.00pm
0
4
HT : 0 1
FT Johan Cruijff Arena
  • Joe Rodon 26' yellowcard
  • Kieffer Moore 40' yellowcard
  • David Brooks 80' yellowcard
  • Harry Wilson 90' redcard
  • Gareth Bale 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Kasper Dolberg 27'
  • goal Kasper Dolberg 48'
  • goal Joakim Maehle 88'
  • goal Martin Braithwaite 90'+4'
Nations League
Nov 16, 2018 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Paul Dummett 38' yellowcard
  • Tom Lawrence 77' yellowcard
  • Ethan Ampadu 86' yellowcard
  • Ashley Williams 87' yellowcard
  • Gareth Bale 89' goal
  • goal Nicolai Jorgensen 42'
  • yellowcard Henrik Dalsgaard 52'
  • yellowcard Thomas Delaney 82'
  • yellowcard Kasper Dolberg 85'
  • yellowcard Mathias Jorgensen 87'
  • goal Martin Braithwaite 88'
  • yellowcard Kasper Schmeichel 90'
Nations League
Sep 9, 2018 5.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Christian Eriksen 32' goal
  • Christian Eriksen 63' goal
  • Kasper Schmeichel 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ben Davies 77'
  • yellowcard Joe Allen 90'