Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 51.93%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Armenia had a probability of 23.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for an Armenia win it was 0-1 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that North Macedonia would win this match.