Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 52.05%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Moldova had a probability of 22.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.14%), while for a Moldova win it was 0-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.