Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 34.4% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Kazakhstan win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Armenia in this match.