Nations League Gameweek 4
Oct 6, 2026 7.45pm
Stadion Poljud

Croatia vs Spain - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Croatia

All competitions

Spain

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Spain win with a probability of 51.66%. A win for Croatia has a probability of 27.02% and a draw has a probability of 21.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (8.3%) and 0-2 (8.23%). The likeliest Croatia win is 2-1 (6.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.12%).

Result

Croatia 27.02% ▼ (-9.66)
Draw 21.32% ▼ (-3.95)
Spain 51.66% ▲ (+13.56)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.69% ▲ (+3.25)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.94% ▲ (+4.69)
Under 1.5 19.06% ▼ (-4.70)
Over 2.5 59.52% ▲ (+7.96)
Under 2.5 40.48% ▼ (-7.96)
Over 3.5 39.08% ▲ (+9.35)
Under 3.5 60.92% ▼ (-9.35)
Over 4.5 24.8% ▲ (+7.52)
Under 4.5 75.2% ▼ (-7.52)

First Half Winner

Croatia 26.51% ▼ (-3.91)
Draw 30.18% ▼ (-12.32)
Spain 43.3% ▲ (+16.21)

Team To Score First

Croatia 39.4% ▼ (-12.97)
No Goal 4.9% ▼ (-1.64)
Spain 55.7% ▲ (+14.61)

Corners

Over 8 56.77% ▲ (+3.62)
Equal 8 11.23% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 8 31.99% ▼ (-3.56)
Over 9 45.42% ▲ (+3.36)
Equal 9 11.36% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 9 43.23% ▼ (-3.62)
Over 10.5 34.85% ▲ (+2.87)
Under 10.5 65.15% ▼ (-2.86)

Croatia Goals

Over 1.5 32.25% ▼ (-4.90)
Under 1.5 67.75% ▲ (+4.90)
Over 2.5 12.52% ▼ (-3.72)
Under 2.5 87.48% ▲ (+3.72)
Over 3.5 3.89% ▼ (-1.77)
Under 3.5 96.11% ▲ (+1.77)

Spain Goals

Over 0.5 79.77% ▲ (+9.37)
Under 0.5 20.23% ▼ (-9.38)
Over 1.5 53.31% ▲ (+14.93)
Under 1.5 46.69% ▼ (-14.93)
Over 2.5 28.27% ▲ (+11.92)
Under 2.5 71.73% ▼ (-11.93)
Over 3.5 13.35% ▲ (+7.42)
Under 3.5 86.65% ▼ (-7.42)

Score analysis

Croatia 27.02%
Draw 21.32%
Spain 51.66%
Croatia
2-1 @ 6.04% ▼ (-1.41)
1-0 @ 5.86% ▼ (-2.78)
2-0 @ 4.06% ▼ (-1.87)
3-1 @ 3% ▼ (-0.82)
3-2 @ 2.65% ▲ (+0.34)
3-0 @ 1.69% ▼ (-1.54)
Other @ 3.72% ▼ (-1.60)
Total : 27.02%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.12% ▼ (-3.00)
2-2 @ 5.84% ▲ (+0.80)
0-0 @ 4.9% ▼ (-1.64)
3-3 @ 1.29% ▲ (+0.09)
Other @ 0.17% ▼ (-0.17)
Total : 21.32%
Spain
1-2 @ 8.32% ▲ (+0.29)
0-1 @ 8.3% ▼ (-0.32)
0-2 @ 8.23% ▲ (+1.60)
1-3 @ 5.44% ▲ (+1.87)
0-3 @ 4.4% ▲ (+1.28)
2-3 @ 3.79% ▲ (+1.29)
Other @ 13.18% ▲ (+7.59)
Total : 51.66%

Head to Head

Nations League Gameweek 2
Sep 29, 2026 7.45pm
4
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
  • Lamine Yamal 2' goal
  • Marc Pubill 31' goal
  • Álex Baena 49' yellowcard
  • Lamine Yamal 63' goal
  • Nico Williams 89' goal
  • yellowcard Marin Pongracic 18'
  • goal Dion Beljo 28'
  • yellowcard Petar Sučić 37'
  • yellowcard Marco Pašalić 54'
  • yellowcard Josip Misic 58'
European Championship
Jun 15, 2024 5.00pm
3
0
HT : 3 0
FT Olympiastadion Berlin
  • Alvaro Morata 29' goal
  • Fabian Ruiz 32' goal
  • Dani Carvajal 45'+2' goal
  • Rodri 78' yellowcard
Nations League
Jun 18, 2023 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
ET Stadion Feijenoord
European Championship
Jun 28, 2021 5.00pm
3
5
HT : 1 1
ET Telia Parken
  • Pedri 20' goal
  • Marcelo Brozovic 73' yellowcard
  • Duje Caleta-Car 84' yellowcard
  • Mislav Orsic 85' goal
  • Mario Pasalic 90'+2' goal
  • goal Pablo Sarabia 38'
  • goal Cesar Azpilicueta 57'
  • goal Ferran Torres 77'
  • goal Alvaro Morata 100'
  • goal Mikel Oyarzabal 103'
Nations League
Nov 15, 2018 7.45pm
3
2
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Andrej Kramaric 54' goal
  • Tin Jedvaj 69' goal
  • Ante Rebic 70' yellowcard
  • Ivan Perisic 88' yellowcard
  • Tin Jedvaj 90' goal
  • goal Dani Ceballos 56'
  • goal Sergio Ramos 78'
  • yellowcard Sergio Busquets 88'
  • yellowcard Dani Ceballos 90'
Nations League
Sep 11, 2018 7.45pm
6
0
HT : 3 0
FT
  • Saul Niguez 24' goal
  • Marco Asensio 33' goal
  • Lovre Kalinic 35' goal
  • Rodrigo 49' goal
  • Sergio Ramos 57' goal
  • Isco 70' goal
  • yellowcard Ivan Santini 12'
  • yellowcard Marcelo Brozovic 39'