UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Sep 8, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Opus Arena

Croatia
1 - 0
Poland

Modric (52')
Kovacic (2'), Pjaca (14'), Sucic (40'), Petkovic (68'), Budimir (90+1'), Probierz (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Bednarek (44'), Probierz (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League clash between Croatia and Poland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Croatia

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Portugal 2-1 Croatia
Thursday, September 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain	3	5	9
2	Italy	3	0	4
3	Croatia	3	-3	2
4	Albania	3	-2	1

Poland

All competitions

Nations League

Last Game: Scotland 2-3 Poland
Thursday, September 5 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	3	2	6
2	France	3	1	5
3	Netherlands	3	0	4
4	Poland	3	-3	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 50.72%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Poland had a probability of 23.02%.

The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.08%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Poland win it was 0-1 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Croatia in this match.

Result
Croatia	Draw	Poland
50.72% ( 0.23)	26.26% ( -0.01)	23.02% ( -0.22)

Both teams to score 46.18% (

-0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.9% (

-0.15)

57.1% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.02% (

-0.12)

77.98% (

0.13)

Croatia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.4% (

0.04)

22.6% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.78% (

0.05)

56.22% (

-0.05)

Poland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.67% (

-0.3)

40.33% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.04% (

-0.28)

76.96% (

0.28)

Score Analysis

Croatia 50.71%

Poland 23.02%

Draw 26.26%

Croatia	Draw	Poland
1-0 @ 13.55% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 10.08% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 4.54% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.69% ( 0) Other @ 2.79% Total : 50.71%	1-1 @ 12.31% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.12% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.16% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.68% Total : 26.26%	0-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.59% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.31% Total : 23.02%