National League Gameweek 43
Apr 6, 2026 3.00pm
Mazuma Stadium

Morecambe vs Carlisle United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Morecambe

All competitions
Last game
Apr 3, 2026 3.00pm
Rochdale 2 - 4 Morecambe
Goals scored
63
Top scorer
Jack Nolan

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last game
Apr 3, 2026 3.00pm
Carlisle 0 - 0 Gateshead
Goals scored
76
Top scorer
Georgie Kelly

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Carlisle United win with a probability of 53.18%. A win for Morecambe has a probability of 23.81% and a draw has a probability of 23.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.95%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest Morecambe win is 1-0 (6.21%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.38%).

Result

Morecambe 23.81% (+0.04)
Draw 23.01% (+0.06)
Carlisle United 53.18% (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.24%

Goals

Over 1.5 77.91% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 22.09% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 55.15% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 44.85% (+0.01)
Over 3.5 32.96% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 67.04% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 19.48% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 80.52% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Morecambe 22.76%
Draw 38.46%
Carlisle United 38.78%

Team To Score First

Morecambe 36.12%
No Goal 5.81% (+0.02)
Carlisle United 58.07% (-0.03)

Corners

Over 8 68.26% (+0.24)
Equal 8 9.72% (-0.01)
Under 8 22.02% (-0.22)
Over 9 57.51% (+0.24)
Equal 9 10.75%
Under 9 31.74% (-0.24)
Over 10.5 46.56% (+0.22)
Under 10.5 53.44% (-0.22)

Morecambe Goals

Over 1.5 27.49% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 72.51% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 9.7% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 90.3% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 2.71%
Under 3.5 97.29%

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5 80.54% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 19.46% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 51.92% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 48.08% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 25.86% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 74.14% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 10.6% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 89.4% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Morecambe 23.81%
Draw 23%
Carlisle United 53.16%
Morecambe
1-0 @ 6.21% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 5.81% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 3.59% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 2.39%
3-2 @ 1.99% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 1.31% (+0.02)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 23.81%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.38% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 5.81% (+0.02)
2-2 @ 5.31%
3-3 @ 1.3% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 23%
Carlisle United
0-1 @ 10.04%
1-2 @ 9.95% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 8.81%
1-3 @ 5.76% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 5.12% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 3.08% (-0.03)
Other @ 10.4% (-0.01)
Total : 53.16%

Head to Head

National League
Dec 30, 2025 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • 35' yellowcard
  • Regan Linney 35' yellowcard
  • Luke Armstrong 45'+2' goal
  • yellowcard 36'
  • yellowcard Ludwig Francillette 82'
  • yellowcard 84'
  • yellowcard Ben Tollitt 85'
  • yellowcard Ludwig Francillette 85'
League Two Gameweek 42
Apr 12, 2025 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Mazuma Stadium
  • Lee Angol 36' yellowcard
  • goal Georgie Kelly 28'
  • yellowcard Callum Whelan 38'
  • goal Terell Thomas 60'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Breeze 75'
League Two Gameweek 22
Dec 26, 2024 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Brunton Park
  • Jack Ellis 60' yellowcard
  • Jon Mellish 62' redcard
  • yellowcard Luke Hendrie 36'
  • goal Gwion Edwards 61'
  • yellowcard Adam Lewis 89'
  • yellowcard David Tutonda 90'+3'
EFL Trophy
Nov 12, 2024 7.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Mazuma Stadium
  • Hallam Hope 16' goal
  • Nathan Snowball 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Adam Lewis 76' yellowcard
  • goal Freddie O'Donoghue 75'
  • goal Ben Williams 78'
EFL Trophy
Nov 9, 2021 7.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Liam Gibson 34' yellowcard
  • goal Jordan Gibson 49'
  • goal Kelvin Mellor 54'
League Two Gameweek 34
Mar 6, 2021 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT Globe Arena
  • Sam Lavelle 12' yellowcard
  • Aaron Wildig 32' goal
  • Toumani Diagouraga 37' goal
  • Kelvin Mellor 45'+2' yellowcard
  • Cole Stockton 53' goal
  • yellowcard Lewis Alessandra 39'
  • goal Aaron Hayden 79'