Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 53.18%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 23.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.95%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (6.21%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.