National League Gameweek 38
Mar 14, 2026 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT The Lamb Ground
  • Teo Kurtaran 46' yellowcard
  • 46' yellowcard
  • Oliver Lynch 64' goal
  • Oliver Lynch 76' goal
  • Matthias Curley 77' yellowcard
  • Michael Reindorf 78' yellowcard
  • Tom Tonks 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Tom Tonks 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Tom Tonks 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard David Ajiboye 46'
  • goal Stephen Wearne 52'
  • yellowcard 58'
  • yellowcard Hugh Parker 80'
  • yellowcard Jack Ellis 84'
  • yellowcard Terell Thomas 90'+2'

Tamworth vs Carlisle United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Tamworth

All competitions
Last game
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
Wealdstone 3 - 2 Tamworth
Goals scored
50
Top scorer
Oliver Lynch

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last game
Mar 10, 2026 7.45pm
Aldershot 0 - 2 Carlisle
Goals scored
67
Top scorer
Georgie Kelly

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Tamworth had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Tamworth win was 1-0 (8.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.

Result

Tamworth 31.85% (-0.43)
Draw 26.3% (-0.09)
Carlisle United 41.85% (+0.51)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.25% (+0.16)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.55% (+0.15)
Under 1.5 24.45% (-0.15)
Over 2.5 51.66% (+0.21)
Under 2.5 48.34% (-0.21)
Over 3.5 29.8% (+0.22)
Under 3.5 70.2% (-0.21)
Over 4.5 16.57% (+0.15)
Under 4.5 83.43% (-0.14)

First Half Winner

Tamworth 26.81% (+0.01)
Draw 41.71% (-0.01)
Carlisle United 31.48%

Team To Score First

Tamworth 41.73% (-0.06)
No Goal 6.79% (-0.05)
Carlisle United 51.48% (+0.10)

Corners

Over 8 57.24% (-0.08)
Equal 8 11.54% (-0.04)
Under 8 31.22% (+0.10)
Over 9 45.54% (-0.04)
Equal 9 11.7% (-0.05)
Under 9 42.76% (+0.08)
Over 10.5 34.65% (+0.01)
Under 10.5 65.35% (-0.02)

Tamworth Goals

Over 1.5 33.79% (-0.28)
Under 1.5 66.21% (+0.27)
Over 2.5 12.73% (-0.19)
Under 2.5 87.27% (+0.19)
Over 3.5 3.89% (-0.07)
Under 3.5 96.11% (+0.07)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5 74.42% (+0.33)
Under 0.5 25.58% (-0.33)
Over 1.5 41.86% (+0.51)
Under 1.5 58.14% (-0.51)
Over 2.5 18.19% (+0.37)
Under 2.5 81.81% (-0.36)
Over 3.5 6.29% (+0.17)
Under 3.5 93.71% (-0.18)

Score analysis

Tamworth 31.85%
Draw 26.3%
Carlisle United 41.83%
Tamworth
1-0 @ 8.19% (-0.09)
2-1 @ 7.54% (-0.09)
2-0 @ 4.83% (-0.09)
3-1 @ 3.21% (-0.05)
3-2 @ 2.33% (-0.03)
3-0 @ 2.04% (-0.07)
Other @ 3.71% (-0.07)
Total : 31.85%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.36% (-0.06)
0-0 @ 6.79% (-0.05)
2-2 @ 5.71% (+0.04)
3-3 @ 1.26%
Other @ 0.18% (-0.02)
Total : 26.3%
Carlisle United
0-1 @ 9.45% (-0.03)
1-2 @ 8.92% (+0.07)
0-2 @ 6.71% (+0.09)
1-3 @ 4.31% (+0.08)
0-3 @ 3.35% (+0.07)
2-3 @ 2.98% (+0.05)
Other @ 6.11% (+0.19)
Total : 41.83%

Head to Head

National League
Nov 29, 2025 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Morgan Feeney 7' yellowcard
  • Georgie Kelly 25' goal
  • Georgie Kelly 79' goal
  • 85' yellowcard
  • David Ajiboye 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tyler Roberts 21'
  • yellowcard Kennedy Digie 31'
  • goal Jordan Ponticelli 38'
  • yellowcard Kwaku Donkor 90'+5'