Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Tamworth had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest Tamworth win was 1-0 (8.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.