National League Gameweek 38
Mar 14, 2026 3.00pm
The Lamb Ground

Tamworth vs Carlisle United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Tamworth

All competitions
Last game
Mar 7, 2026 3.00pm
Woking 3 - 1 Tamworth
Goals scored
46
Top scorer
Oliver Lynch

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last game
Mar 7, 2026 5.30pm
Carlisle 2 - 2 Southend
Goals scored
64
Top scorer
Georgie Kelly

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Carlisle United win with a probability of 38.9%. A win for Tamworth has a probability of 34.75% and a draw has a probability of 26.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win is 0-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Tamworth win is 1-0 (8.52%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.54%).

Result

Tamworth 34.75%
Draw 26.35%
Carlisle United 38.9%

Both Teams to Score: 

56%

Goals

Over 1.5 76%
Under 1.5 24%
Over 2.5 51.96%
Under 2.5 48.04%
Over 3.5 29.71%
Under 3.5 70.3%
Over 4.5 16.45%
Under 4.5 83.55%

First Half Winner

Tamworth 28.41%
Draw 42.35%
Carlisle United 29.24%

Team To Score First

Tamworth 44.16%
No Goal 6.61%
Carlisle United 49.23%

Corners

Over 8 57.7%
Equal 8 11.62%
Under 8 30.68%
Over 9 45.87%
Equal 9 11.83%
Under 9 42.3%
Over 10.5 34.84%
Under 10.5 65.16%

Tamworth Goals

Over 1.5 36.19%
Under 1.5 63.81%
Over 2.5 14.13%
Under 2.5 85.87%
Over 3.5 4.4%
Under 3.5 95.6%

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5 72.8%
Under 0.5 27.2%
Over 1.5 39.74%
Under 1.5 60.26%
Over 2.5 16.59%
Under 2.5 83.41%
Over 3.5 5.66%
Under 3.5 94.34%

Score analysis

Tamworth 34.76%
Draw 26.35%
Carlisle United 38.91%
Tamworth
1-0 @ 8.52%
2-1 @ 8.13%
2-0 @ 5.36%
3-1 @ 3.5%
3-2 @ 2.52%
3-0 @ 2.46%
Other @ 4.27%
Total : 34.76%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.54%
0-0 @ 6.61%
2-2 @ 5.82%
3-3 @ 1.25%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26.35%
Carlisle United
0-1 @ 8.89%
1-2 @ 8.69%
0-2 @ 6.12%
1-3 @ 3.94%
0-3 @ 2.99%
2-3 @ 2.75%
Other @ 5.53%
Total : 38.91%

Head to Head

National League
Nov 29, 2025 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Morgan Feeney 7' yellowcard
  • Georgie Kelly 25' goal
  • Georgie Kelly 79' goal
  • 85' yellowcard
  • David Ajiboye 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tyler Roberts 21'
  • yellowcard Kennedy Digie 31'
  • goal Jordan Ponticelli 38'
  • yellowcard Kwaku Donkor 90'+5'