Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 47.48%. A win for Eastleigh had a probability of 27.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.61%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Eastleigh win was 1-0 (7.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.