Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 47.59%. A win for Scunthorpe United had a probability of 28.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Scunthorpe United win was 1-2 (6.9%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.