National League Gameweek 28
Jan 21, 2026 7.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT Brunton Park
  • Bevis Mugabi 67' yellowcard
  • Luke Armstrong 71' yellowcard
  • Ryan Galvin 71' yellowcard
  • L. Armstrong 71' yellowcard
  • Elliot Embleton 84' yellowcard
  • Elliot Embleton 85' yellowcard
  • goal Josh Stones 6'
  • yellowcard Alex Hunt 75'
  • yellowcard Daniel Batty 76'
  • yellowcard Alex Newby 76'
  • yellowcard Daniel Batty 77'
  • yellowcard Alex Newby 77'
  • yellowcard Ollie Banks 84'
  • yellowcard Ryan Fallowfield 84'
  • yellowcard Morgan Williams 84'
  • yellowcard Oliver Banks 85'
  • yellowcard Ryan Fallowfield 85'
  • yellowcard Morgan Williams 85'
  • goal Alex Newby 90'+8'

Carlisle United vs York City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last game
Jan 17, 2026 3.00pm
Solihull 3 - 3 Carlisle
Goals scored
59
Top scorer
Georgie Kelly

York City

All competitions
Last game
Jan 17, 2026 5.30pm
York City 1 - 1 Southend
Goals scored
85
Top scorer
Ollie Pearce

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 40.87%. A win for York City had a probability of 35.75% and a draw had a probability of 23.43%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.12%) and 2-0 (5.61%). The likeliest York City win was 1-2 (7.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.

Result

Carlisle United 40.87% (+0.73)
Draw 23.43% (+0.29)
York City 35.75% (-1.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.61% (-0.72)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.01% (-0.56)
Under 1.5 19.99% (+0.56)
Over 2.5 58.58% (-0.93)
Under 2.5 41.42% (+0.93)
Over 3.5 37.51% (-1.65)
Under 3.5 62.49% (+1.65)
Over 4.5 22.34% (-1.22)
Under 4.5 77.66% (+1.22)

First Half Winner

Carlisle United 31.6% (-0.04)
Draw 35.86% (+0.84)
York City 32.54% (-0.81)

Team To Score First

Carlisle United 49.44% (-0.22)
No Goal 4.83% (+0.22)
York City 45.73% (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 63.53% (-0.32)
Equal 8 10.71% (+0.03)
Under 8 25.76% (+0.29)
Over 9 52.11% (-0.30)
Equal 9 11.42% (-0.01)
Under 9 36.47% (+0.32)
Over 10.5 40.93% (-0.28)
Under 10.5 59.07% (+0.28)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 1.5 44.22% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 55.78% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 20.59% (-0.11)
Under 2.5 79.41% (+0.11)
Over 3.5 7.11% (-0.11)
Under 3.5 92.89% (+0.11)

York City Goals

Over 0.5 71.7% (-0.86)
Under 0.5 28.3% (+0.86)
Over 1.5 40.68% (-1.47)
Under 1.5 59.32% (+1.47)
Over 2.5 17.51% (-1.13)
Under 2.5 82.49% (+1.13)
Over 3.5 6.35% (-0.65)
Under 3.5 93.65% (+0.65)

Score analysis

Carlisle United 40.86%
Draw 23.42%
York City 35.76%
Carlisle United
2-1 @ 8.4% (+0.32)
1-0 @ 8.12% (+0.24)
2-0 @ 5.61% (+0.20)
3-1 @ 4.98% (-0.04)
3-2 @ 3.97% (-0.19)
3-0 @ 2.87% (+0.30)
Other @ 6.91% (-0.09)
Total : 40.86%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.56% (+0.25)
2-2 @ 6.17% (-0.12)
0-0 @ 4.83% (+0.22)
3-3 @ 1.66% (-0.08)
Other @ 0.2% (-0.02)
Total : 23.42%
York City
1-2 @ 7.76% (+0.01)
0-1 @ 7.08% (+0.09)
0-2 @ 5.27% (-0.07)
1-3 @ 4.02% (-0.29)
2-3 @ 3.45% (-0.24)
0-3 @ 2.03% (+0.10)
Other @ 6.15% (-0.62)
Total : 35.76%

Head to Head

National League
Sep 23, 2025 7.45pm
5
0
HT : 0 0
FT
League Two
Jan 23, 2016 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Jason Kennedy 15' goal
  • Michael Raynes 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Russell Penn 51'
  • yellowcard Ntumba Massanka 60'
  • goal Luke Summerfield 87'
  • yellowcard Vadaine Oliver 94'
League Two
Sep 19, 2015 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Vadaine Oliver 51' redcard
  • Dave Winfield 55' yellowcard
  • Luke Summerfield 72' goal
  • Josh Carson 74' goal
  • Luke Summerfield 82' yellowcard
  • goal Tom Miller 26'
  • goal Troy Archibald-Henville 42'
  • yellowcard Angelo Balanta 71'
League Two
Mar 14, 2015 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • yellowcard Sean O'Hanlon 77'
League Two
Dec 28, 2014 3.00pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Kyle Dempsey 80' yellowcard
  • goal Josh Carson 44'
  • goal Luke Summerfield 68'
  • goal Michael Coulson 81'