National League Gameweek 28
Jan 21, 2026 7.45pm
Brunton Park

Carlisle United vs York City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last game
Jan 17, 2026 3.00pm
Solihull 0 - 0 Carlisle
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Georgie Kelly

York City

All competitions
Last game
Jan 17, 2026 5.30pm
York City 0 - 1 Southend
Goals scored
59
Top scorer
Ollie Pearce

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Carlisle United win with a probability of 40.14%. A win for York City has a probability of 36.76% and a draw has a probability of 23.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (7.88%) and 2-0 (5.42%). The likeliest York City win is 1-2 (7.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.31%).

Result

Carlisle United 40.14% (+0.15)
Draw 23.15% (-0.16)
York City 36.76% (+0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.32% (+0.61)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.57% (+0.88)
Under 1.5 19.43% (-0.88)
Over 2.5 59.5% (+0.80)
Under 2.5 40.5% (-0.80)
Over 3.5 39.15% (+0.80)
Under 3.5 60.85% (-0.80)
Over 4.5 23.56% (+0.59)
Under 4.5 76.44% (-0.60)

First Half Winner

Carlisle United 31.64%
Draw 35.02%
York City 33.34%

Team To Score First

Carlisle United 49.65% (-2.56)
No Goal 4.61% (-0.24)
York City 45.74% (+2.79)

Corners

Over 8 63.84% (+1.72)
Equal 8 10.69% (+0.09)
Under 8 25.48% (-1.79)
Over 9 52.41% (+1.46)
Equal 9 11.43% (+0.25)
Under 9 36.16% (-1.72)
Over 10.5 41.2% (+1.10)
Under 10.5 58.8% (-1.10)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 1.5 44.18% (+0.57)
Under 1.5 55.82% (-0.57)
Over 2.5 20.7% (+0.45)
Under 2.5 79.3% (-0.46)
Over 3.5 7.22% (+0.22)
Under 3.5 92.78% (-0.22)

York City Goals

Over 0.5 72.56% (+0.38)
Under 0.5 27.44% (-0.37)
Over 1.5 42.15% (+0.37)
Under 1.5 57.85% (-0.37)
Over 2.5 18.64% (+0.61)
Under 2.5 81.36% (-0.61)
Over 3.5 6.99% (+0.13)
Under 3.5 93.01% (-0.13)

Score analysis

Carlisle United 40.14%
Draw 23.15%
York City 36.76%
Carlisle United
2-1 @ 8.09% (+0.07)
1-0 @ 7.88% (-0.20)
2-0 @ 5.42% (-0.07)
3-1 @ 5.02% (+0.25)
3-2 @ 4.15% (-0.09)
3-0 @ 2.58% (-0.05)
Other @ 7% (+0.21)
Total : 40.14%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.31% (+0.09)
2-2 @ 6.28% (-0.13)
0-0 @ 4.61% (-0.24)
3-3 @ 1.73% (+0.11)
Other @ 0.22% (+0.02)
Total : 23.15%
York City
1-2 @ 7.75% (-0.08)
0-1 @ 6.99% (-0.40)
0-2 @ 5.33% (+0.05)
1-3 @ 4.3% (+0.09)
2-3 @ 3.69% (+0.23)
0-3 @ 1.93% (+0.06)
Other @ 6.77% (+0.12)
Total : 36.76%

Head to Head

National League
Sep 23, 2025 7.45pm
5
0
HT : 0 0
FT
League Two
Jan 23, 2016 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Jason Kennedy 15' goal
  • Michael Raynes 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Russell Penn 51'
  • yellowcard Ntumba Massanka 60'
  • goal Luke Summerfield 87'
  • yellowcard Vadaine Oliver 94'
League Two
Sep 19, 2015 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Vadaine Oliver 51' redcard
  • Dave Winfield 55' yellowcard
  • Luke Summerfield 72' goal
  • Josh Carson 74' goal
  • Luke Summerfield 82' yellowcard
  • goal Tom Miller 26'
  • goal Troy Archibald-Henville 42'
  • yellowcard Angelo Balanta 71'
League Two
Mar 14, 2015 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • yellowcard Sean O'Hanlon 77'
League Two
Dec 28, 2014 3.00pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Kyle Dempsey 80' yellowcard
  • goal Josh Carson 44'
  • goal Luke Summerfield 68'
  • goal Michael Coulson 81'