Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 48.08%. A win for Southend United had a probability of 26.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Southend United win was 1-2 (6.65%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.