National League Gameweek 31
Feb 7, 2026 3.00pm
Crown Oil Arena

Rochdale vs Carlisle United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Rochdale

All competitions
Last game
Feb 3, 2026 7.45pm
Rochdale 4 - 1 Boreham Wood
Goals scored
49
Top scorer
Ian Henderson

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last game
Jan 31, 2026 3.00pm
Carlisle 0 - 0 Altrincham
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Georgie Kelly

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Rochdale win with a probability of 50.66%. A draw has a probability of 24.95% and a win for Carlisle United has a probability of 24.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.76%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.7%) , while for a Carlisle United win it is 0-1 (6.52%).

Result

Rochdale 50.66% (-0.08)
Draw 24.95% (-0.02)
Carlisle United 24.34% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.44% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.2% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 23.8% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 52.39% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 47.61% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 30.04% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 69.96% (+0.06)
Over 4.5 17.19% (-0.01)
Under 4.5 82.81% (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Rochdale 38.62% (-0.13)
Draw 38.01% (+0.01)
Carlisle United 23.37% (+0.11)

Team To Score First

Rochdale 54.42% (+0.02)
No Goal 6.52%
Carlisle United 39.06% (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 57.34% (-0.03)
Equal 8 11.38% (-0.02)
Under 8 31.28% (+0.05)
Over 9 45.78% (-0.01)
Equal 9 11.56% (-0.01)
Under 9 42.66% (+0.03)
Over 10.5 35% (+0.01)
Under 10.5 65% (-0.02)

Rochdale Goals

Over 1.5 48.46% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 51.54% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 23.03% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 76.97% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 9% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 91% (+0.02)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5 60.35% (-0.01)
Under 0.5 39.65% (+0.01)
Over 1.5 27.45% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 72.55% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 9.39% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 90.61% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 2.54%
Under 3.5 97.46%

Score analysis

Rochdale 50.66%
Draw 24.95%
Carlisle United 24.33%
Rochdale
1-0 @ 10.7% (-0.03)
2-1 @ 9.76% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 8.48% (-0.03)
3-0 @ 5.06%
3-1 @ 4.92%
3-2 @ 2.91% (-0.01)
Other @ 8.83% (-0.02)
Total : 50.66%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.7% (-0.04)
0-0 @ 6.52%
2-2 @ 5.42%
3-3 @ 1.14% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 24.95%
Carlisle United
0-1 @ 6.52% (-0.04)
1-2 @ 6.09% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 3.64% (-0.03)
1-3 @ 2.51%
2-3 @ 1.77% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.43% (+0.04)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 24.33%

Head to Head

National League
Sep 27, 2025 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Club Friendlies 3
Jul 27, 2024 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Spotland Stadium
  • Kairo Mitchell 42' goal
  • Aaron Henry 49' goal
  • goal Daniel Butterworth 72'
League Two Gameweek 29
Jan 28, 2023 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Crown Oil Arena
  • goal John-Kymani Gordon 8'
League Two Gameweek 7
Sep 3, 2022 3.00pm
3
3
HT : 1 1
FT Brunton Park
  • Jon Mellish 36' goal
  • Kristian Dennis 58' goal
  • Paul Huntington 78' goal
  • goal Scott Quigley 22'
  • goal Devante Rodney 51'
  • goal Scott Quigley 53'
  • yellowcard Scott Quigley 69'
League Two Gameweek 30
Mar 29, 2022 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Liam Kelly 10' goal
  • Jay Lynch 70' yellowcard
  • Conor Grant 81' goal
  • yellowcard Dynel Simeu 5'
  • yellowcard Danny Devine 63'
  • yellowcard Brennan Dickenson 90'+3'
League Two Gameweek 23
Mar 1, 2022 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Omari Patrick 25' goal
  • Jordan Gibson 79' yellowcard
  • Jack Armer 88' yellowcard
  • Tobi Sho-Silva 89' goal