National League Gameweek 35
Feb 25, 2026 7.45pm
3
1
HT : 1 0
FT The Suit Direct Stadium
  • Tyrese Sinclair 12' goal
  • Alex Reid 46' goal
  • Adam Campbell 72' yellowcard
  • Gavan Holohan 72' yellowcard
  • Sam Folarin 72' yellowcard
  • Calvin Okike 76' yellowcard
  • Calvin Okike 77' goal
  • Vadaine Oliver 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Regan Linney 53'
  • yellowcard Georgie Kelly 53'
  • goal Georgie Kelly 80'
  • yellowcard Hugh Parker 83'
  • yellowcard Terell Thomas 83'

Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Hartlepool United

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 3.00pm
Solihull 3 - 4 Hartlepool
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Alex Reid

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 3.00pm
Carlisle 3 - 0 Yeovil
Goals scored
60
Top scorer
Georgie Kelly

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 33.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.

Result

Hartlepool United 39.74% (-0.05)
Draw 26.44% (+0.02)
Carlisle United 33.83% (+0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.46%

Goals

Over 1.5 74.69%
Under 1.5 25.31%
Over 2.5 51.2% (+0.08)
Under 2.5 48.8% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 29.06% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 70.94% (-0.05)
Over 4.5 15.71% (+0.06)
Under 4.5 84.29% (-0.05)

First Half Winner

Hartlepool United 30.32%
Draw 41.29%
Carlisle United 28.39%

Team To Score First

Hartlepool United 48.82% (-0.03)
No Goal 7.3%
Carlisle United 43.88% (+0.03)

Corners

Over 8 59.91% (-0.03)
Equal 8 11.47%
Under 8 28.62% (+0.02)
Over 9 48.01% (-0.03)
Equal 9 11.9%
Under 9 40.09% (+0.03)
Over 10.5 36.72% (-0.03)
Under 10.5 63.28% (+0.03)

Hartlepool United Goals

Over 1.5 39.74% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 60.26% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 16.49%
Under 2.5 83.51%
Over 3.5 5.45% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 94.55% (-0.02)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5 68.42% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 31.58% (-0.02)
Over 1.5 34.99% (+0.09)
Under 1.5 65.01% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 13.65% (+0.07)
Under 2.5 86.35% (-0.07)
Over 3.5 4.2% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 95.8% (-0.04)

Score analysis

Hartlepool United 39.73%
Draw 26.44%
Carlisle United 33.82%
Hartlepool United
1-0 @ 9.58% (-0.02)
2-1 @ 8.75% (-0.02)
2-0 @ 6.35% (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.22% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 3.07% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 2.49%
Other @ 5.27%
Total : 39.73%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.04% (-0.04)
0-0 @ 7.3%
2-2 @ 5.66% (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.26% (+0.02)
Other @ 0.18% (+0.01)
Total : 26.44%
Carlisle United
0-1 @ 8.42% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 8.08% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 5.11% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 3.47%
2-3 @ 2.49% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 2.23% (+0.01)
Other @ 4.02% (+0.02)
Total : 33.82%

Head to Head

National League
Oct 1, 2025 7.45pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
League Two Gameweek 26
Jan 24, 2023 7.45pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT Brunton Park
  • Morgan Feeney 6' goal
  • Kristian Dennis 26' goal
  • Kristian Dennis 66' goal
  • goal Josh Umerah 28'
League Two Gameweek 14
Oct 8, 2022 3.00pm
1
3
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Alex Lacey 43' goal
  • goal Owen Moxon 53'
  • goal Omari Patrick 75'
  • goal Omari Patrick 82'
League Two Gameweek 26
Jan 18, 2022 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Jordan Gibson 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Timi Odusina 51'
EFL Trophy
Aug 31, 2021 7.00pm
3
3
HT : 1 1
FT Brunton Park
  • Taylor Charters 11' goal
  • Manasse Mampala 59' goal
  • Manasse Mampala 67' yellowcard
  • Tristan Abrahams 78' goal
  • goal Matty Daly 18'
  • yellowcard Matty Daly 55'
  • goal Luke Molyneux 81'
  • goal Olufela Olomola 89'
League Two Gameweek 5
Aug 28, 2021 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Tyler Burey 13' goal
  • Gavan Holohan 69' goal
  • Gary Liddle 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Zach Clough 3'
  • goal Zach Clough 38'
  • yellowcard Callum Guy 67'