Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 33.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.