Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 63.26%. A draw had a probability of 20.28% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 16.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 1-0 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.19%) , while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (4.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.