Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Southend United had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Southend United win was 0-1 (8.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.