National League
Mar 7, 2026 5.30pm
2
2
HT : 2 0
FT Brunton Park
  • Georgie Kelly 3' goal
  • Regan Linney 36' goal
  • Bevis Mugabi 76' yellowcard
  • Bevis Mugabi 78' yellowcard
  • Jack Ellis 83' yellowcard
  • Hugh Parker 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Collin Andeng Ndi 7'
  • goal Andrew Dallas 65'
  • yellowcard Charley Kendall 66'
  • yellowcard Sam Austin 66'
  • yellowcard James Morton 66'
  • yellowcard Sam Austin 67'
  • yellowcard Charley Kendall 67'
  • yellowcard James Morton 67'
  • goal Terell Thomas 81' (OG)
  • yellowcard Slavi Spasov 87'

Carlisle United vs Southend United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Eastleigh 1 - 2 Carlisle
Goals scored
66
Top scorer
Georgie Kelly

Southend United

All competitions
Last game
Mar 3, 2026 7.45pm
Southend 1 - 1 Truro City
Goals scored
56
Top scorer
Gus Scott-Morriss

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Southend United had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Southend United win was 0-1 (8.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.

Result

Carlisle United 37.81%
Draw 26.58%
Southend United 35.56% (-0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.51%

Goals

Over 1.5 75.98% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 24.02% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 52.18% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 47.82% (+0.01)
Over 3.5 29.79% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 70.21% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 16.66% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 83.34% (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Carlisle United 32.62%
Draw 40.57%
Southend United 26.81%

Team To Score First

Carlisle United 48.91%
No Goal 6.74%
Southend United 44.35%

Corners

Over 8 57.53% (-0.01)
Equal 8 11.36%
Under 8 31.11% (+0.01)
Over 9 45.98% (-0.02)
Equal 9 11.55%
Under 9 42.47% (+0.01)
Over 10.5 35.19% (-0.02)
Under 10.5 64.81% (+0.02)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 1.5 39.06% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 60.94% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 16.07% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 83.93% (-0.03)
Over 3.5 5.46% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 94.54% (-0.01)

Southend United Goals

Over 0.5 70.3% (-0.05)
Under 0.5 29.7% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 37.2% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 62.8% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 15.12% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 84.88% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 5%
Under 3.5 95%

Score analysis

Carlisle United 37.82%
Draw 26.58%
Southend United 35.54%
Carlisle United
1-0 @ 8.84%
2-1 @ 8.61%
2-0 @ 5.9%
3-1 @ 3.75% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 2.98%
3-2 @ 2.56% (+0.02)
Other @ 5.18% (+0.01)
Total : 37.82%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.36% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 6.74%
2-2 @ 5.88%
3-3 @ 1.32%
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 26.58%
Southend United
0-1 @ 8.38% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 8.09% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 5.55% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 3.49%
0-3 @ 2.71% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 2.6%
Other @ 4.72%
Total : 35.54%

Head to Head

National League
Nov 8, 2025 5.30pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
League Two Gameweek 39
Apr 3, 2021 1.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT Roots Hall Stadium
  • Kyle Taylor 38' yellowcard
  • goal Offrande Zanzala 17'
  • yellowcard Rodney McDonald 31'
  • goal Gime Toure 79'
League Two Gameweek 2
Sep 19, 2020 1.00pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Brunton Park
  • Nick Anderton 16' yellowcard
  • Omari Patrick 36' goal
  • Joshua Kayode 39' goal
League Two
Feb 28, 2015 3.00pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Michael Timlin 50' goal
  • Barry Corr 72' goal
  • yellowcard Steven Rigg 69'
League Two
Aug 23, 2014 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Antony Sweeney 43' goal
  • goal Conor Clifford 45'
  • yellowcard John White 52'
League One
Mar 20, 2010 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 2 2
FT
  • Adam Barrett 21' yellowcard
  • Franck Moussa 25' goal
  • Adam Barrett 28' goal
  • Adam Barrett 67' redcard
  • Pat Baldwin 88' yellowcard
  • goal Scott Dobie 6'
  • goal Ben Marshall 13'