Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southend United win with a probability of 47.54%. A win for Horsham had a probability of 26.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southend United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.81%) and 1-2 (8.55%). The likeliest Horsham win was 1-0 (8.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.