Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 42.68%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.32% and a draw had a probability of 25.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (6.97%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (7.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.