Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 43.69%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 30.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 1-2 (7.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.