National League Gameweek 44
Apr 11, 2026 3.00pm
Brunton Park

Carlisle United vs Sutton United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last game
Apr 6, 2026 3.00pm
Morecambe 2 - 2 Carlisle
Goals scored
78
Top scorer
Georgie Kelly

Sutton United

All competitions
Last game
Apr 6, 2026 3.00pm
Sutton 0 - 3 Southend
Goals scored
57
Top scorer
Brandon Njoku

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Carlisle United win with a probability of 53.45%. A win for Sutton United has a probability of 23.51% and a draw has a probability of 23.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win is 2-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Sutton United win is 1-2 (6.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.31%).

Result

Carlisle United 53.45% (-0.01)
Draw 23.04% (+0.01)
Sutton United 23.51%

Both Teams to Score: 

58.84%

Goals

Over 1.5 81.84%
Under 1.5 18.16%
Over 2.5 60.93% (-0.05)
Under 2.5 39.02%
Over 3.5 38.84% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 61.16% (-0.02)
Over 4.5 23.52% (+0.01)
Under 4.5 76.48% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Carlisle United 39.45%
Draw 38.82%
Sutton United 21.74%

Team To Score First

Carlisle United 60.41% (-0.02)
No Goal 4.55% (+0.01)
Sutton United 35.04%

Corners

Over 8 62.39% (+0.10)
Equal 8 10.86% (-0.01)
Under 8 26.75% (-0.08)
Over 9 50.92% (+0.10)
Equal 9 11.48% (+0.01)
Under 9 37.61% (-0.10)
Over 10.5 39.79% (+0.08)
Under 10.5 60.21% (-0.08)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 1.5 55.53% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 44.47% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 29.14% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 70.86% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 12.2%
Under 3.5 87.8%

Sutton United Goals

Over 0.5 62.47%
Under 0.5 37.53%
Over 1.5 30.59% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 69.41% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 11.54% (-0.03)
Under 2.5 88.46% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 3.65%
Under 3.5 96.35%

Score analysis

Carlisle United 53.47%
Draw 23.05%
Sutton United 23.51%
Carlisle United
2-1 @ 10.06% (-0.02)
1-0 @ 8.63% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 7.65% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 6.5% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.9% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.9% (+0.01)
Other @ 11.83%
Total : 53.47%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.31% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 6.18%
0-0 @ 4.55% (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.64%
Other @ 0.37%
Total : 23.05%
Sutton United
1-2 @ 6.04% (-0.01)
0-1 @ 5.01% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 2.93% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 2.66%
2-3 @ 2.5%
0-3 @ 1.09% (-0.03)
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 23.51%

Head to Head

National League
Aug 30, 2025 3.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT
League Two Gameweek 46
May 8, 2023 12.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT The Borough Sports Ground
  • Kylian Kouassi 17' goal
  • goal Joe Kizzi 85' (OG)
League Two Gameweek 20
Dec 3, 2022 1.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Brunton Park
  • Ryan Edmondson 30' goal
  • goal Will Randall 45'
League Two Gameweek 29
Jan 29, 2022 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 2
FT
  • Tyrese Omotoye 52' yellowcard
  • goal Isaac Olaofe 23'
  • goal David Ajiboye 31'
  • yellowcard Robert Milsom 55'
  • yellowcard Isaac Olaofe 67'
League Two Gameweek 9
Sep 25, 2021 3.00pm
4
0
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Corey Whelan 4' goal
  • Alistair Smith 37' goal
  • Ben Goodliffe 57' yellowcard
  • Alistair Smith 70' goal
  • David Ajiboye 81' goal
  • yellowcard Manasse Mampala 56'
  • yellowcard Brennan Dickenson 56'
  • redcard Manasse Mampala 71'