Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 53.45%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 23.51% and a draw had a probability of 23.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 1-2 (6.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.