Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 51.17%. A win for DC United had a probability of 25.95% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest DC United win was 1-2 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that DC United would win this match.