Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 40.96%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-0 (7.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.