Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 64.3%. A draw had a probability of 20.03% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 15.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Austin FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.31%) , while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.