Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 38.6%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 35.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.02%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-2 (8.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.