Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Louisville City win with a probability of 65.4%. A draw had a probability of 19.26% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 15.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Louisville City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.65%) , while for a Austin FC win it was 0-1 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.