Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lexington win with a probability of 44.39%. A win for Louisville City had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lexington win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Louisville City win was 0-1 (7.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.